Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
